Demography

DEMOGRAPHY (from the Greek demos-people and grapho-I write), in its literal sense, means description of the people. This term was first used by A. Guillard in his book "Elements de statistique humai-ne ou demographie comparee" (Paris, 1855). Regarding content, scope, and limits, there are significant disagreements, up to the denial of Demography as an independent science. Guillard himself saw in Demography a science studying the physical, economic, political, and moral condition of the state. Such a broad definition, including in demography the entire field of social science and the science of national economy, has now been abandoned; most authors either identify Demography with population statistics or consider Demography as the science of population, including in it besides population statistics also population theory, i.e., the study and comprehensive interpretation of the conditioning and interactions between the size and growth of population on the one hand and the state of the national economy and elements of the socio-economic structure on the other. The negative attitude of some authors toward Demography as an independent science is a reflection of long-standing disputes and disagreements about statistics in general, recognized at times as a real science about a specific subject (society) and at other times as a simple method applicable to the most diverse fields of knowledge along with other methods. The prevailing view at present is to consider statistics as purely a methodological science without its own subject of research, but regarding population statistics (demography) an exception is admitted. By most authors, Demography is recognized as an independent science: it has its own material content, not included in the scope of other sciences, and possesses its own research method. However, opinions differ as to what data about the population and events in its life should be studied in Demography, defined as population statistics. In a narrower and at the same time indisputable understanding, Demography studies the size and territorial distribution of population, changes in its size over time, the composition of population according to known natural-biological characteristics, primarily by sex and age; further, Demography studies the immediate causes of this or that state of population (its size and composition): births and deaths, as well as population movements (migrations). The methodological part of Demography also includes the so-called formal theory of population, which should not be confused with the general theory of population in the sense defined above. The task of formal theory is the formal demarcation of different demographic aggregates and establishing between them mutual relationships and dependencies. A number of authors significantly expand the content and scope of Demography, including on the one hand the study of population composition according to socio-economic and professional characteristics, and on the other such mass phenomena of social life as crimes and diseases, usually attributed to the so-called moral and sanitary statistics. The inclusion of these phenomena in the field of Demography is motivated, among other things, by the uniformity of research methods and schemes of scientific representation of phenomena of criminality, morbidity, and such purely demographic phenomena as mortality, birth rate, marriage rate. If one agrees with this point of view, the study of these specific mass phenomena is still advisable to single out as separate and independent sections of Demography, in the extended understanding of this science. As for the socio-professional composition of population, it is impossible to exclude from the field of Demography these data in that general brief form as they are studied in demographic censuses; on the other hand, the broad, in-depth study of materials from special "industrial-professional censuses" on the socio-professional composition of population, in connection with the study of the productive forces of the country, should be attributed to the field of economic statistics and political economy. Population in Demography is understood as the aggregate of people living in a specific territory. As an indifferent human mass, mechanically united by a common territory, the demographic concept of population differs from such concepts as people, nation, society, where reference is made either to a historically formed aggregate of people united by certain national-political aims, or to an aggregate of people connected by relationships on the basis of homogeneous or opposite interests and aspirations. Population represents a moving, continuously changing magnitude. Changes occurring in the population of any territory, leading to changes in its size and composition, are conditioned by two kinds of causes: causes of a natural-biological order, to which belong births and deaths, and causes of a socio-economic character, which cause movements of masses of population from one locality to another. The aggregate of phenomena of the first kind is called the natural movement of population, and the aggregate of phenomena of the second kind is called the mechanical movement of population. Phenomena of the natural movement of population usually include marriage rate; this is conditioned by the fact that marriage rate is the main social condition of birth rate, and partly by the fact that observation and registration of marriages are conducted by the same agencies that conduct registration of deaths and births. Changes in the size of population, depending on the natural movement of population, i.e., on the difference between the numbers of births and deaths, are called the natural increase of population; changes in the size of population caused by the mechanical movement of population, i.e., the difference between the numbers of emigrants and immigrants to a given territory, are called the mechanical increase of population. The aggregate of changes in the size of population, conditioned by natural and mechanical increase, constitutes the actual increase of population. For the study of the size, composition, and movement of population, two main methods of statistical observation are used - censuses and current registration. Censuses serve for determining the state, or statics (size and composition) of population at a specific moment in time, current registration - for studying the movement, or dynamics of population. The conducting of general population censuses on modern organizational and technical bases began in comparatively recent times (in most countries only from the middle of the 19th century). Those unsystematic attempts to determine the quantity of population, which were made in former times and which are often given the name of population censuses, have little in common with modern censuses. In connection with fiscal-financial and military objectives, for which these accounting and calculations were mainly conducted, the accounting had in view only a certain part of the population subject to the fulfillment of obligations (taxpayers, men capable of bearing arms, etc.), and did not extend to the entire population. Moreover, these calculations usually continued for a long time and were not timed to a specific moment in time, which led to double counting, omissions, and other inaccuracies. At the same time, the population, knowing that these accounting served as the basis for establishing taxes and obligations, usually tried to evade registration. Often these calculations were reduced to a simple counting of this or that persons or groups of persons without any census forms. But even where nominal lists were compiled, they usually contained very few registered characteristics, which to a large extent deprived these accounting of any broad scientific and practical significance. Accounting and calculations of population of this type were carried out in various forms in ancient China, Egypt, ancient Judea, ancient Rome (censuses). Such calculations were also carried out in some localities and cities in the Middle Ages. In Russia, such accounting was called revisions; there were 10 revisions of them, the first in 1718 and the last in 1857. Population censuses, more or less satisfying modern organizational requirements, were first established (from 1790) in the U.S.A., where from that year they have been regularly conducted every 10 years. From 1801, regular periodic censuses (every 10 years) began to be conducted in England and Scotland. In France, the first census was conducted in 1801, then in 1806, 1821, 1831, and starting from 1831, population censuses in France have been conducted regularly every 5 years. In Norway, regular censuses every 10 years have been conducted starting from 1815, in Holland - from 1829, in Denmark - from 1840. However, all these censuses, approximately until the middle of the 19th century, although they more or less satisfied the requirements of their organization, provided very little material for the study of population composition due to the extremely limited number of registered characteristics. In these early censuses of the first half of the 19th century, in most cases not even such a necessary and elementary characteristic for any demographic research as age was recorded, not to mention a number of other characteristics registered in censuses at the present time.

The first detailed and scientifically satisfactory census of the population was conducted in 1846 in Belgium under the direction of Quetelet. Starting approximately from this time, that is, from the 1850s, censuses in other countries also began to meet contemporary scientific requirements both in terms of organization and program. In most countries, population censuses are currently conducted at regular periodic intervals, every 10 years. A more frequent, 5-year interval has been established in Germany, France, and Bulgaria. There are no firmly established intervals in Romania, Greece, the USSR, and most South American republics. No censuses are conducted at all in China, Persia, among the semi-savage population of Africa, Polynesia, etc. In Russia before the October Revolution, there was only one population census (in 1897); after the revolution, two censuses took place - in 1920 and 1926, with the census of 1920, conducted under conditions of civil war, being incomplete and not covering a significant part of the Union (about 70% of the total population was counted). The general principles for conducting modern population censuses are their nominative nature, single-day reference, and periodicity. All residents of a given locality are counted by name, with, in addition to the first and last name of each, a number of characteristics are recorded that serve to study the composition and mass properties of the population being counted (sex, age, marital status, occupation, etc.). Such nominative registration is tied to one, predetermined day or even hour (the so-called critical moment of the census). This tying of the census to a single moment in time is necessary because the size of the population continuously changes due to births, deaths, relocations, and movements. At the same time, when conducting a census and determining the size and composition of the population, we are, as it were, presenting the population in a stationary state. For the census to reflect this stationary state, this state of rest as much as possible, it is necessary to tie the counting of residents and all census data to one specific moment in time. Filling out census forms is usually done over several days before the critical moment of the census, and after the critical moment, the forms are checked and corrected to ensure they correspond to the data at the critical moment. If, for example, as is usual, the critical moment is set at 12 o'clock midnight on the day before a predetermined day, then all births, as well as arrivals in the given locality after 12 o'clock, and deaths and departures before 12 o'clock are excluded from the census; conversely, births and arrivals before 12 o'clock and deaths and departures after 12 o'clock are included. The programs of population censuses differ in different countries; however, certain questions are as it were mandatory and are included in all censuses. These include questions about sex, age, marital status, and occupation. The International Statistical Congress of 1872 established a number of characteristics that it considered mandatory, which should be taken into account in all population censuses. In addition to those mentioned above, these include questions about religion, spoken language, the relationship of the person being surveyed to the head of the family or household, literacy, place of birth, nationality, place of permanent residence, presence of physical disabilities (blindness, deaf-mutism), and mental disorder. In practice, at present, many questions from this scheme are not included in censuses, but other questions, not specified in the scheme, are asked. In particular, in most countries, literacy, religion, and physical disabilities are not taken into account in censuses. For example, the program of the last all-union population census of December 17, 1926, was as follows: 1) last name, first name, patronymic; 2) sex; 3) age; 4) nationality; 5) native language; 6) place of birth; 7) how long has been living permanently in the place of census; 8) marital status; 9) literacy; 10-11) mark about physical disabilities and mental illness; 12) main and secondary occupation, position in occupation and branch of labor; 13) for the unemployed - previous occupation and how long without work; 14) for those without occupation - source of livelihood; 15) for those without occupation and living on others' means (non-active) - occupation of the person providing the means of livelihood. Several categories of population are distinguished, in particular present population, permanent population, and registered, or legal, population. In most countries, the census is conducted on the principle of present population, that is, all residents are counted where they are present at the moment of the census, even if they are there by chance, in transit, etc. Often, in this case, records are made that allow to a certain extent the accounting of the permanent population of the given locality, that is, the aggregate of persons who permanently live in the given locality, have their permanent residence there, regardless of whether they are present at the time of the census or not. The permanent population is obviously equal to the present population minus those temporarily present, but with the addition of those temporarily absent. Therefore, for the purpose of accounting for permanent population, notes are often made on census forms about the accidental or temporary presence of a given person in the given locality at the time of the census, and along with this, the permanently absent permanent residents of the given locality are counted based on information from relatives or householders. Accounting for permanent population is important in many respects; in practice, however, accounting for permanent population in censuses presents great difficulties due to the lack of clear, indisputable characteristics for accurately distinguishing the concepts of 'temporary absence' and 'temporary presence'. Registered, or legal, population is usually defined as the population legally assigned to a given locality and connected with it by one or another legal relations. For example, subjects of a country residing in another country at the time of the census constitute the registered population. Before the October Revolution in Russia, peasants, townspeople, and Cossacks were registered with one or another rural, volost, urban, or stanitsa societies and represented the registered population of the locality of their registration, even if they themselves more or less permanently resided elsewhere. It should be noted that the term 'legal', or registered, population is understood differently in different countries, and in many cases this concept coincides with the concept of 'permanent' population. Registered population is almost never used as the basis for censuses. In particular, in Russia at the first all-Russian census of 1897, an attempt was made to account for all three categories of population - present, permanent, and registered. The data from population censuses constitute the basic scientific demographic material for studying the size, territorial distribution, and composition of the population according to various demographic and social characteristics. Not to mention the composition of the population, the simple size of the population can be determined with sufficient accuracy only by means of a census. As for non-census years, given accurate data on births and deaths and on arrivals and departures from the given locality, it is possible to determine the amount of population at any given moment with sufficient accuracy. The population number from the last census plus the difference between the numbers of births and deaths and the difference between the numbers of arrivals and departures to the given locality for a given time gives the exact amount of population at a given moment. In practice, reliable data on the numbers of arrivals and departures are usually not available, due to which the amount of population in non-census years is usually calculated approximately on the basis of the rate of population growth observed in the time interval between the last two censuses. The material for studying the natural movement of the population are acts of civil status, which are records of events of birth, death, and marriage made by established government authorities. Despite the importance of proper accounting for these phenomena, this matter received serious attention from the government authorities only in the last two centuries. Current registration of births, deaths, and marriages arose from church records of the corresponding rites. As early as the 4th century, the clergy in Western Europe in some places kept such records, entering into registers their fees and collections for them. By the end of the 6th century, so-called church books already appeared, which in the 16th century became widespread. The existing factual situation was consolidated by the decree of the Council of Trent (1563), which determined for the Catholic clergy the mandatory keeping of books of marriages, baptisms, and burials and established general rules for keeping church books. Since these church records are connected with important legal consequences arising from the fact of marriage, birth, and death, with the gradual strengthening of civil and legal order, the government authorities, interested in the proper keeping of these records, began to exercise control over the records, establish certain rules, etc.

The development of this control gradually led to the fact that the keeping of records itself began to be transferred to state organs, and civil registration of vital acts was established. Civil registration was first introduced in France (during the revolutionary era, in 1791) and latest in the USSR, where civil registration was established after the October Revolution, in December 1917. In 1805, civil registration was introduced in Belgium, in 1815 in Holland, in 1836 in England and Wales, in 1850 in Scotland, in 1861 in Ireland, in 1864 in Romania, in 1865 in Italy, in 1870 in Spain, in 1874 in Switzerland, in 1875 in Germany, in 1897 in Hungary, in 1900 in Portugal. The system of church records has been preserved to the present day in Austria and Yugoslavia (on the territory of former Serbia). In Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland, records are kept by the clergy, but in special books, separate from records of church rites, and these books are recognized as civil registers. At present in the USSR, the keeping of vital acts has been assigned to the duties of civil authorities through specially created institutions - departments of registration of vital acts (so-called zagsov). Records of births, deaths, and marriages are made for residents of provincial, gubernatorial, and regional cities in provincial, gubernatorial, and regional zagsov; for residents of county and district cities - in county and district zagsov; for residents of county-less cities and worker settlements where city councils have been established - in these councils; for the rural population and residents of those cities where rural councils have been established - in rural councils. All vital records are kept in two copies, with one copy stored in the institution where the records are made, and the other sent within specified periods to the corresponding provincial or district zagsov authorities for storage. The provincial and district zagsov transfer these second copies, before being archived, for a certain period (6 months) for statistical processing to the corresponding provincial or district statistical departments. The program of records for births and deaths at present is as follows: for births - name of the newborn, sex, time of birth, notation of twins and stillbirths, name and surname of father and mother, their age, nationality, profession, social status, address; for the deceased - name and surname, sex, age, time of death, cause of death, marital status of the deceased, nationality, profession, social status, address. - Registration of data on natural population movement at present is carried out in all civilized countries with almost absolute accuracy. The situation is different with the accounting of mechanical population movement, migrations and resettlements. Data on mechanical population movement are obtained partly on the basis of direct, immediate registration, partly on the basis of indirect methods and calculations. The application of the direct method of observation encounters considerable difficulties and is carried out in a more or less satisfactory form only for overseas emigration and immigration. The direct method requires registration of every change of residence, and moreover twice - upon departure and at the place of settlement. With the extreme mobility of the population, any reasonably accurate accounting in this form does not seem possible, especially since it concerns migrations within the country. Such registration is not favored by the existing freedom of movement, under which changes of residence are usually not connected with any formalities, as well as difficulties in mass registration of distinguishing cases of actual emigration and immigration from temporary, occasional moves, travels, etc. Overseas emigration and immigration are in more favorable conditions; the routes of travel pass through relatively few ports, where it is possible to organize special supervision and detailed questioning of travelers both at points of departure and at points of arrival. As for land migrations, both in the sense of movements from state to state and with regard to internal migratory movement within a given state, some possibility of direct accounting of migrations is created by maintaining current population lists. The mandatory keeping of these lists in each commune or parish has been established in Belgium, Scandinavian states, Holland, Italy. The lists must include all persons arriving for permanent residence in a given commune, and all persons departing for residence in another commune must be noted. However, as experience shows, the data from these lists cannot be considered sufficiently complete and accurate, especially where the population is characterized by great mobility. Attempts in some larger cities to use police and militia data on registration and deregistration of arriving and departing persons for statistical accounting of population movements have also not led to satisfactory results. In view of the limited possibilities of applying direct methods of accounting for migratory movement, significant importance belongs to indirect accounting methods, based on the one hand on census data about place of birth and on the other - on data about changes in population size between two adjacent censuses in comparison with data on natural population movement for the period between these censuses. Based on data about the place of birth of the census population, materials are obtained about the size of the native population of each given locality, i.e., the population born in this locality; from comparing the numbers of these local natives with the numbers of the total population found by the census in the same locality, numerical ratios are obtained that illuminate the extent of existing migratory movement here. The greater the difference between the numbers of the total population and the number of local natives, the more pronounced the migratory movement is, and vice versa. In addition to these general data, census materials about place of birth and place of residence make it possible to obtain specific data on the direction of migrations by distributing and counting the total population by place of birth and by distributing natives of a given locality by place of residence. Data obtained from census materials about place of birth give only results of migrations occurring over a long period, related to a specific moment, and do not reflect all cases that have occurred, especially for a time distant from the census, since those who have migrated but died before the census are not counted. The second method of indirectly determining the size of migratory movement consists in comparing the numbers of actual and natural population increase. The actual increase represents the difference in population numbers at two successive censuses; this figure is the result of changes in population size due to births and deaths that occurred between the censuses (natural increase), and the result of changes that occurred due to emigration and immigration to this locality during the same time (mechanical increase). The difference between the numbers of actual and natural increase represents the size of migratory movement between the censuses in the form of a number showing the excess of emigration over immigration, or vice versa; this figure does not give the sizes of emigration and immigration separately. Thus, the population of Leningrad according to the census of March 15, 1923, was 1,071,103, and according to the census of December 17, 1926 - 1,614,008. The actual population increase for these 3 years 9 months amounts to 542,905, and the difference between the numbers of births and deaths for the same time - 61,125. From this it is clear that the number of persons who arrived in Leningrad during the specified period exceeded the number who departed by 542,905 - 61,125 = 481,780. - The significance of natural and mechanical population movement for its growth varies for different countries and localities. The population of the earth as a whole changes only through natural increase; the population of cities grows mainly through mechanical increase. Mechanical increase plays a major role in the rapid growth of the population of America and Australia. As for Europe, the population of the overwhelming majority of European countries increases exclusively through natural increase, and almost everywhere natural increase is greater than actual increase due to the presence of more or less significant emigration from almost all European countries. To characterize the rate of population increase, the coefficient of actual increase is usually used, calculated according to the compound interest formula: r = 100 (√^p₂/p₁ - 1), where r is the growth coefficient, p₁ is the population according to the given census, p₂ is the population according to the previous census, n is the number of years that have passed between these censuses. In addition to the growth coefficient, as a measure of the speed of population growth, the doubling period of the population is often determined. This measure, which is not without clarity, means the number of years during which the population doubles its initial size, assuming a certain constant percentage of increase. The calculation of the doubling period is performed according to the formula t = 70/r, where t is the desired number of years, r is the percentage of increase.

(For individual demographic concepts and elements—see Marriage of the population, Birth rate, etc.)